Dear Friend & Subscriber,
Some people wonder why I spend so much time on the fundamentals of implementing
systems. (Maybe you're one of them.) They think I overdo it a bit, talking
about such "simple things" like having a purpose, or having
clarity, or having a project execution strategy, or goal setting. Now
I could be a jerk about it and just say, "Tough luck, that's the
way it is" and go about my business. But I think the question has
merit. Truth be known, I would absolutely love to talk about more timely,
rather than "timeless" subject matter. It would make me look
like a genius. But if I did, it wouldn't help your project or system
at all.
But I thought that since the question gets raised
time and time again as to why I'm doing it, in this newsletter I am
going to share one of my personal beliefs.
Here goes...
I fervently believe in something called the "Butterfly
Effect". Hopefully by the end of this letter, you will too.
If you are new to the concept, the Butterfly Effect
says that a butterfly flapping its wings in Shanghai has the power to
transform the weather conditions in San Francisco.
Believe it or not.
But I'll tell you this much: I believe it with my
heart and soul. "What's that have to do with systems?" you
may ask. Well to answer that, let me tell you about Edward Lorenz, the
guy that discovered the theory and hopefully you'll see the direct implications
and application to your system and project.
Back in 1961, Edward Lorenz was a research meteorologist
at MIT when, using a series of intricate algorithms, he developed a
computer program designed to model weather patterns. One winter day,
Lorenz shortcut a new weather printout by starting the weather program
midway through. To do that, he set his initial weather conditions by
typing them in from an earlier printout.
The program started. Then something really strange
started happening... Edward's new printout started to dramatically diverge
from the previous print out. At first glance, he thought he had a bug.
He thought his computer had somehow malfunctioned, so he repeated the
experiment a few times with the same unexpected result. But then it
hit him: This was no bug. The problem was with the numbers he had entered
to start the program to set the initial conditions.
Here's what happened: In the first program, he had
entered six decimal places... .056127. In the hand-keyed second run,
to save time and entry, he had rounded off the numbers to .056. He thought
that the impact of the "thousandths" position (one part in
a thousand) would be insignificant. He was wrong.
The impact it made WAS significant. The technical
term for this phenomenon is called "sensitive dependence upon initial
conditions". (Commit it to memory, because you'll be hearing a
lot about it in the years to come.) But it's better known as the Butterfly
Effect. In essence, tiny changes or conditions set at the beginning
of a process can have a profound impact at the end of the process.
Let's look at it from another learned perspective...
W. Edwards Deming. Deming had his own way of dimensionalizing the same
thing after at least half a century of statistical research and study.
Fundamentally, he said:
- Every process has a beginning, a middle and an
end.
- When you focus your efforts on the first 15% percent
of a process and get
it right (in other words, its initial conditions), you can be assured
the
remaining 85% will follow effortlessly.
Now I'm not sure where he gets the effortless part.
And I HAVE worked on projects that seemed to have no end. But this strategy
does make things vastly easier, IF YOU DO THE FIRST 15% CORRECTLY. But
if you get it wrong (especially in a systems context)... There's almost
no recovery and the project spins out of control forever. Or it takes
an extraordinary Herculean effort to get the process back on track.
(Think budgets being blown, career limiting moves, project delays, etc.)
And THAT'S why I pay so much attention to these beginning stages of
a systems project. That first 15% at the beginning is everything to
me... The purpose, the leverage, the goals, the strategy, the plan,
the ROI, your resources, etc. To be successful, it's critical to get
them right... at the beginning.
NOW can you appreciate the emphasis I place on the
clarifying prerequisite homework we've been talking about?
Best of success,
Rick Duris
Voice: (847)217-3039
Email: Rick@rickdurisunplugged.com
P.S. If you're just starting a project
and need some help establishing your own "initial conditions",
I invite you to call or email me and we can discuss how we can work
together to engineer your project and system for massive success.
I have room for just one client who is committed
to success at this time. Remember that I am only focused on manufacturing,
3PL, distribution or supply chain oriented systems. Feel free to call
me and we can discuss your unique situation and possibilities.
P.P.S. The theory and history of
the Butterfly Effect is discussed in a very cool book called Chaos by
James Gleick. I'm sure Amazon has it in stock.
P.P.P.S. If this kind of thinking
turns you on and you want to know more about the butterfly effect, chaos
theory, fractal geometry and other such topics, check out: http://www.p-jones.demon.co.uk/nonliner.htm
